Human-readable history backed by the official recommendation ledger and CLI settlements.
The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.
| Date | City | Forecast vs actual | Verdict | Why this was right / wrong | Net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 40.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Awaiting result | This recommendation was issued, but an official settlement is not available yet.— | +33.1 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 76.7%Market 21.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 20pp > 6pp cap; book 66 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (spread 20pp > 6pp cap; book 66 < 200 min liquidity) | +28.7 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 63.3%Market 98.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 93 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 93 < 200 min liquidity) | +27.7 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 24.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 35pp > 6pp cap; book 39 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 35pp > 6pp cap; book 39 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +25.0 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 63.3%Market 36.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 103.65 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (book 103.65 < 200 min liquidity) | +24.3 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 79.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | low model confidencelow model confidence | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 12.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 25pp > 6pp cap; book 55 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (spread 25pp > 6pp cap; book 55 < 200 min liquidity) | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 5.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 5pp < 8pp floornet edge 5pp < 8pp floor | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 10.0%Market 3.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 4pp < 8pp floornet edge 4pp < 8pp floor | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | BostonKBOS | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.2% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 6.2pp > 6pp cap); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 6.2pp > 6pp cap); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-07 | AustinKAUS | ForecastPIQ 46.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing; low model confidenceNO executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-06 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 23.3%Market 3.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s)cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s) | +17.3 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 86.7%Market 99.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s)cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s) | +11.3 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 6.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 164.95 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (book 164.95 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +92.0 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 40.0%Market 5.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 76.03 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (book 76.03 < 200 min liquidity) | +32.0 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | BostonKBOS | ForecastNO · PIQ 90.0%Market 98.8% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 7.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 7.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastPIQ 96.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 84pp > 6pp cap; book 147.2 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 7.7pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 84pp > 6pp cap; book 147.2 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 7.7pp < 8pp floor | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 83.3%Market 77.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 68.5pp > 6pp cap); net edge 6.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 68.5pp > 6pp cap); net edge 6.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.2% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 3.3pp < 8pp floornet edge 3.3pp < 8pp floor | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 2.1pp < 8pp floorevent definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 2.1pp < 8pp floor | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 96.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 138 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (book 138 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastNO · PIQ 3.3%Market 3.8% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge -0.7pp < 8pp floornet edge -0.7pp < 8pp floor | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-06 | AustinKAUS | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-06 | Las VegasKLAS | ForecastPIQ 90.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-05 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 30.0%Market 8.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.— | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 83.3%Market 3.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (spread 7.3pp > 6pp cap) | +77.3 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 70.0%Market 7.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | low model confidencelow model confidence | +60.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastNO · PIQ 40.0%Market 96.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 6.9pp > 6pp cap)market price not actionable (spread 6.9pp > 6pp cap) | +53.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastYES · PIQ 46.7%Market 8.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 179.13 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (book 179.13 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | +36.7 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 10.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 86 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (book 86 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floor | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 2pp < 8pp floornet edge 2pp < 8pp floor | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 98pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 98pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 2.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 1pp < 8pp floornet edge 1pp < 8pp floor | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 98.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastYES · PIQ 83.3%Market 52.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 91pp > 6pp cap; book 118.99 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -8.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 91pp > 6pp cap; book 118.99 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -8.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-09-05 | Washington DCKDCA | ForecastPIQ 63.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-04 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastYES · PIQ 66.7%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 102.98 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (book 102.98 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +59.7 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 43.3%Market 5.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 8pp > 6pp cap; book 164.94 < 200 min liquidity)market price not actionable (spread 8pp > 6pp cap; book 164.94 < 200 min liquidity) | +34.3 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 50.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 89pp > 6pp cap; book 125.49 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 89pp > 6pp cap; book 125.49 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floor | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastYES · PIQ 10.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 162 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (book 162 < 200 min liquidity); net edge 3pp < 8pp floor | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 13.3%Market 8.3% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 7.3pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 7.3pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1.3pp < 8pp floor | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 0.2% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 46.7pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 46.7pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 6.7%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (book 111 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -0.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (book 111 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -0.3pp < 8pp floor | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastPIQ 53.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 16 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge -45.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 16 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge -45.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | -45.7 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 16.7%Market 13.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 96pp > 6pp cap; book 41.61 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -81.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 96pp > 6pp cap; book 41.61 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -81.3pp < 8pp floor | -81.3 pp |
| 2026-09-04 | AustinKAUS | ForecastPIQ 76.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-03 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastYES · PIQ 76.7%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap; book 75.49 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap; book 75.49 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | +68.7 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 90.0%Market 50.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 96 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 96 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +44.0 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastNO · PIQ 80.0%Market 99.6% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | low model confidencelow model confidence | +19.4 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 16.7%Market 2.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (spread 6.2pp > 6pp cap) | +11.2 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 1.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.3pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.3pp < 8pp floor | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastNO · PIQ 23.3%Market 50.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 44pp > 6pp cap; book 140.97 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -21.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 44pp > 6pp cap; book 140.97 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -21.3pp < 8pp floor | -21.3 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastYES · PIQ 66.7%Market 47.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 16 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -32.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 16 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -32.3pp < 8pp floor | -32.3 pp |
| 2026-09-03 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 6.7%Market 1.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 40.4pp > 6pp cap); net edge -33.8pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 40.4pp > 6pp cap); net edge -33.8pp < 8pp floor | -33.8 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 26.7%Market 1.6% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s)cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s) | +24.7 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 8.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 144 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 98pp > 6pp cap; book 144 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 1pp < 8pp floor | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.7% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 1.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 6.7%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 6.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge -1.2pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 6.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge -1.2pp < 8pp floor | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | DenverKDEN | ForecastPIQ 6.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 146 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -5.7pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 146 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -5.7pp < 8pp floor | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 10.0%Market 43.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 49pp > 6pp cap); net edge -9pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 49pp > 6pp cap); net edge -9pp < 8pp floor | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 13.3%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 98.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge -85.7pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 98.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge -85.7pp < 8pp floor | -85.7 pp |
| 2026-09-02 | AustinKAUS | ForecastPIQ 46.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing; low model confidenceNO executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-09-01 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 26.7%Market 7.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.— | +18.7 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 20.0%Market 5.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 9pp > 6pp cap)market price not actionable (spread 9pp > 6pp cap) | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastYES · PIQ 53.3%Market 32.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 104 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 6.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 104 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge 6.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastNO · PIQ 96.7%Market 99.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 2.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 2.3pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 97.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 97.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap); net edge 1pp < 8pp floor | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 98.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencenet edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.1% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.2pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.2pp < 8pp floor | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.7% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 12.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 12.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-01 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastYES · PIQ 96.7%Market 73.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Correct call | The issued PRECIPIQ side matched the official settled outcome.net edge -1.7pp < 8pp floor | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-08-31 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-31 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-31 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-31 | DenverKDEN | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-31 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastPIQ 96.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-30 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 93.3%Market 49.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 149 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 149 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +85.3 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 86.7%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 8.9pp > 6pp cap); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 8.9pp > 6pp cap); low model confidence | +77.7 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 96.7%Market 5.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 71pp > 6pp cap); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 71pp > 6pp cap); low model confidence | +24.7 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 96.7%Market 59.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (book 122 < 200 min liquidity) | +36.7 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 2.6% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 7.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 7.9pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.1% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 22.8pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 22.8pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 70.0%Market 20.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 110 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -29pp < 8pp floor | +48.0 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | DenverKDEN | ForecastNO · PIQ 53.3%Market 98.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 24.15 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -52.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 24.15 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -52.3pp < 8pp floor | -52.3 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastNO · PIQ 86.7%Market 98.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 24.77 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -85.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 24.77 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -85.7pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | -85.7 pp |
| 2026-08-30 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-29 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 76.7%Market 0.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s)cooldown active after resolved loss in prior 1 day(s) | +75.7 pp |
| 2026-08-29 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 90.0%Market 0.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | low model confidencelow model confidence | +89.0 pp |
| 2026-08-29 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 90.0%Market 3.1% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | low model confidencelow model confidence | +83.9 pp |
| 2026-08-29 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 50.0%Market 3.6% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap)market price not actionable (spread 7pp > 6pp cap) | +42.9 pp |
| 2026-08-29 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.2% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 6.3pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 6.3pp > 6pp cap); net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-29 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 193.4 < 200 min liquidity); YES executable ask missing; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 193.4 < 200 min liquidity); YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-29 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 100.0%Market 99.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); YES executable ask missing; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-29 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 12.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missingmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-29 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); NO executable ask missingmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); NO executable ask missingmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-29 | BostonKBOS | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 160 < 200 min liquidity); NO executable ask missingmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 160 < 200 min liquidity); NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-28 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 60.0%Market 5.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call Close call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (spread 6.9pp > 6pp cap; book 193 < 200 min liquidity) | +54.0 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 96.7%Market 56.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 171.62 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 45pp > 6pp cap; book 171.62 < 200 min liquidity); low model confidence | +50.7 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastYES · PIQ 83.3%Market 12.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 34.8pp > 6pp cap); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 34.8pp > 6pp cap); low model confidence | +48.3 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 90.0%Market 12.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 45.8pp > 6pp cap); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 45.8pp > 6pp cap); low model confidence | +44.0 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastPIQ 86.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 25pp > 6pp cap); low model confidencemarket price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 25pp > 6pp cap); low model confidence | +25.7 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 1.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.1pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.1pp < 8pp floor | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastNO · PIQ 6.7%Market 29.4% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 29.7pp > 6pp cap); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge -6.5pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 29.7pp > 6pp cap); event definition not apples-to-apples; net edge -6.5pp < 8pp floor | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastNO · PIQ 6.7%Market 9.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 97.9pp > 6pp cap; book 198 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -6.6pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 97.9pp > 6pp cap; book 198 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -6.6pp < 8pp floor | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastYES · PIQ 26.7%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 33pp > 6pp cap; book 65 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -7.3pp < 8pp floormarket price not actionable (spread 33pp > 6pp cap; book 65 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -7.3pp < 8pp floor | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastYES · PIQ 90.0%Market 34.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 135.06 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -8pp < 8pp floor; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (spread 97pp > 6pp cap; book 135.06 < 200 min liquidity); net edge -8pp < 8pp floor; low model confidence | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 20.0%Market 10.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Incorrect call | The issued recommendation did not match the official settled outcome.market price not actionable (spread 42.8pp > 6pp cap); net edge -19.9pp < 8pp floor | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-28 | Washington DCKDCA | ForecastPIQ 73.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastYES · PIQ 6.7%Market 4.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.7pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.7pp < 8pp floor | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-27 | DenverKDEN | ForecastYES · PIQ 23.3%Market 20.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 0.3pp < 8pp floornet edge 0.3pp < 8pp floor | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-27 | Washington DCKDCA | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastPIQ 100.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastPIQ 93.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastPIQ 73.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | YES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidenceYES executable pricing unavailable; market probability missing; event definition not apples-to-apples; YES executable ask missing; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-27 | BostonKBOS | ForecastPIQ 26.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missingNO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-27 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastPIQ 13.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missingNO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-27 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastPIQ 3.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missingNO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-27 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 6.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missingNO executable pricing unavailable; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-27 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | NO executable pricing unavailable; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missingNO executable pricing unavailable; event definition not apples-to-apples; NO executable ask missing | — |
| 2026-08-26 | BostonKBOS | ForecastNO · PIQ 0.0%Market 3.5% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | net edge 2pp < 8pp floornet edge 2pp < 8pp floor | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-26 | ChicagoKORD | ForecastPIQ 83.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-26 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastPIQ 70.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-26 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastPIQ 63.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-26 | AtlantaKATL | ForecastPIQ 50.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-26 | DenverKDEN | ForecastPIQ 33.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-26 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastPIQ 3.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing)market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing) | — |
| 2026-08-26 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap)market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap) | — |
| 2026-08-26 | San FranciscoKSFO | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap)market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap) | — |
| 2026-08-26 | PhoenixKPHX | ForecastPIQ 0.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap)market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap) | — |
| 2026-08-26 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastPIQ 6.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap)market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; spread 96pp > 6pp cap) | — |
| 2026-08-25 | New OrleansKMSY | ForecastPIQ 93.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-25 | DenverKDEN | ForecastPIQ 66.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-25 | Las VegasKLAS | ForecastPIQ 16.7%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-25 | Los AngelesKLAX | ForecastPIQ 13.3%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-25 | BostonKBOS | ForecastPIQ 10.0%Market — → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket probability missing; market price not actionable (no observed market price; two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-23 | MiamiKMIA | ForecastYES · PIQ 96.7%Market 0.8% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-23 | PhiladelphiaKPHL | ForecastNO · PIQ 93.3%Market 99.9% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-23 | BostonKBOS | ForecastYES · PIQ 86.7%Market 8.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidencemarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples; low model confidence | — |
| 2026-08-23 | DenverKDEN | ForecastNO · PIQ 23.3%Market 98.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing; book 0 < 200 min liquidity); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |
| 2026-08-23 | SeattleKSEA | ForecastYES · PIQ 13.3%Market 4.0% → ActualPendingOfficial settlement | Stand down | market price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-applesmarket price not actionable (two-sided book missing; spread missing); event definition not apples-to-apples | — |