The flagship Today board freezes from one 7 AM ET cutoff across all 14 cities. Tomorrow freezes at 6 PM ET the evening before. Snow-phase and radar intelligence are scored separately and cannot rewrite either forecast.
One national 7 AM ET cutoff · immutable · GEFS exact-event P + momentum/support
—Afternoon/evening thunderstorm signal strengthens through late day, reaching about 51% in current hourly guidance.
—Current guidance contains two distinct thunderstorm windows with precipitation probability reaching about 51%.
—Monsoonal thunderstorm signal rises sharply late afternoon and evening, reaching about 51% in current hourly guidance.
—Convective rain chance increases through late afternoon and peaks near 51% around the evening period.
—Chicago is a distant fifth; current remaining-day precipitation probabilities quickly fall from about 6% toward zero.
Immutable evening-before forecast · tracked separately
| Tomorrow Top 5 | Event P | NWS | NBM | HRRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 MiamiKMIA | 100% | 61% | 22% | 0.0 mm |
#2 PhiladelphiaKPHL | 87% | 85% | 67% | 64.8 mm |
#3 Washington DCKDCA | 77% | 75% | 53% | 0.0 mm |
#4 PhoenixKPHX | 40% | 20% | 5% | 0.0 mm |
#5 BostonKBOS | 37% | 26% | 22% | 0.0 mm |
Waiting for a same-date 6 PM → 7 AM pair
Frozen forecast vs observed reality · the PRECIPIQ scoreboard
All configured city-days, not only Top 5
| Forecast band | Samples | Mean forecast | Observed rain | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 20-40% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 40-60% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 60-80% | 0 | — | — | — |
| 80-100% | 0 | — | — | — |
Experimental science · zero production influence until proven
Experimental PRECIPIQ phase allocation · separately scored
| TODAY · 7 AM ET Frozen Top 5 | Type | Rain allocation | Snow allocation | Mixed allocation | HRRR snow | Phase confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Miami— | Unknown | — | — | — | — | Limited |
#2 Denver— | Unknown | — | — | — | — | Limited |
#3 Phoenix— | Unknown | — | — | — | — | Limited |
#4 New Orleans— | Unknown | — | — | — | — | Limited |
#5 Chicago— | Unknown | — | — | — | — | Limited |
| Tomorrow Top 5 | Type | Rain allocation | Snow allocation | Mixed allocation | HRRR snow | Phase confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 MiamiKMIA | Unknown | — | — | — | 0.0 cm | Limited |
#2 PhiladelphiaKPHL | Rain | 87% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 cm | High |
#3 Washington DCKDCA | Unknown | — | — | — | 0.0 cm | Limited |
#4 PhoenixKPHX | Unknown | — | — | — | 0.0 cm | Limited |
#5 BostonKBOS | Unknown | — | — | — | 0.0 cm | Limited |
| Top 5 | Snow allocation | Observed snow | Observed outcome | Source | Confidence | Forecast type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snow verification appears after a forecast day matures. | ||||||
| Top 5 | Snow allocation | Observed snow | Observed outcome | Source | Confidence | Forecast type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snow verification appears after a forecast day matures. | ||||||
PRECIPIQ-native station-intercept nowcast · experimental
| City / Radar | P(rain intercept ≤3h) | Motion | Motion method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AustinKAUS · KEWX | 100% | 15 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
MiamiKMIA · KAMX | 100% | 21 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Low |
DenverKDEN · KFTG | 100% | 51 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
Washington DCKDCA · KLWX | 100% | 8 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Low |
PhoenixKPHX · KIWA | 100% | 59 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
AtlantaKATL · KFFC | 100% | 6 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Low |
ChicagoKORD · KLOT | 82% | 52 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
PhiladelphiaKPHL · KDIX | 64% | 27 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
San FranciscoKSFO · KMUX | 57% | 84 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
BostonKBOS · KBOX | 52% | 17 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
SeattleKSEA · KATX | 51% | 15 km/h | Phase Correlation | High |
Los AngelesKLAX · KVTX | 0% | 26 km/h | Reflectivity Centroid | Medium |
Las VegasKLAS · KESX | 0% | 0 km/h | Persistence Unphysical Rejected | Low |