Weather Prediction Market Intelligence

What needs to happen to win: YES wins if the contract's official NWS CLI settlement for KPHL records at least 0.01 in of precipitation during its settlement day.

If the executable price moves above 32¢, the value is gone — PASS.

Today live market comparison: uses the immutable Monday, September 7, 2026 forecast as fair value while refreshing Kalshi + Polymarket execution independently. Green still requires contract alignment, a quote ≤ 60s old, a complete $50 fill, fees/slippage, spread ≤ 6 pts, non-Low confidence, and ≥ 8 pts net edge. The frozen weather probability does not move during the day; only executable market conditions refresh.

BEST TRADE SETUP · WATCH

Austin · RAIN / YESKAUS · Low confidence · forecast rank #5

NO GREEN MARKET · PASS

KALSHIWATCH0s old at build

SIDERAIN/YES

ASK10.0¢

$50 VWAP11.3¢

FEES$2.95

$50 ALL-IN12.0¢

FAIR86.7¢

NET EDGE+74.7 pts

SPREAD3.0 pts

MAX ALL-IN78¢

Hold: market is not open. Depth: 5,041 ct · Fill checks: $25 @ 11.1¢ all-in · $50 @ 12.0¢ all-in · $100 @ 13.3¢ all-in · Quote: 0s old at build · Fair basis: Local calendar day · fee schedule checked 2026-08-28.

POLYMARKETUNAVAILABLEtimestamp unavailable

SIDE—

ASK—

$50 VWAP—

FEES—

$50 ALL-IN—

FAIR—

NET EDGE—

SPREAD—

MAX ALL-IN—

Comparable Polymarket contract is unavailable. Depth: — · Fill checks: $25 unavailable · $50 unavailable · $100 unavailable · Quote: timestamp unavailable · Fair basis: NWS CLI LST day · fee schedule checked 2026-08-28.

NEXT TRADE SETUP · WATCH

New Orleans · RAIN / YESKMSY · Low confidence · forecast rank #2

NO GREEN MARKET · PASS

KALSHIWATCH0s old at build

SIDERAIN/YES

ASK51.0¢

$50 VWAP51.2¢

FEES$1.66

$50 ALL-IN53.0¢

FAIR100.0¢

NET EDGE+47.0 pts

SPREAD3.0 pts

MAX ALL-IN92¢

Hold: market is not open. Depth: 5,775 ct · Fill checks: $25 @ 52.8¢ all-in · $50 @ 53.0¢ all-in · $100 @ 53.4¢ all-in · Quote: 0s old at build · Fair basis: Local calendar day · fee schedule checked 2026-08-28.

POLYMARKETWATCH0s old at build

SIDERAIN/YES

ASK75.0¢

$50 VWAP75.0¢

FEES$0.17

$50 ALL-IN75.9¢

FAIR100.0¢

NET EDGE+24.1 pts

SPREAD33.0 pts

MAX ALL-IN92¢

Hold: spread 33pp > 6pp cap. Depth: 18 ct · Fill checks: $25 partial 55% · $50 partial 27% · $100 partial 14% · Quote: 0s old at build · Fair basis: NWS CLI LST day · fee schedule checked 2026-08-28.

Tomorrow’s Setup · Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket compete independently. Green means that exchange clears contract match, executable pricing, depth, confidence and minimum edge.

Forecast story →

GREEN = actionableYELLOW = watch onlyPASS = do not bet

Tomorrow decision story: appears after the immutable 6 PM ET freeze. Until then there is no official evening-before setup to compare across exchanges.

🧪 Reliability Intelligence

SHADOW ONLY · 0% DECISION WEIGHT

Where PRECIPIQ has earned more — or less — trust

Tomorrow-specific self-calibration that learns where the system deserves more confidence without rewriting weather probabilities.

Historical performance cannot make a bad market actionable. This layer uses only prior live-issued 6 PM Tomorrow outcomes, shrinks small city samples toward the global Tomorrow baseline, and remains completely separate from today’s Verdict.

Global Tomorrow baseline78%127 resolved 6 PM Tomorrow observations

Probability skill0.152Global Tomorrow Brier · lower is better

First influence gate10 / cityBelow 10 = display only, no modifier

Actual Verdict weight0 ptsPromotion requires out-of-sample proof

Reliability Intelligence is collecting. The official 2026-09-08 Tomorrow candidates will populate here after the immutable 6 PM ET forecast is issued. The redesign remains in place even while the row set is empty.

What Changed

Only material movement worth noticing — no repeated “pending” cards.

✓

New validated market pricing is available for 10 tracked cities.

Signal Watch4active city signals firing

Active forecast-movement signals across the tracked cities right now.

Why trust the signal?PRECIPIQ freezes forecasts, verifies outcomes and keeps market data read-only. The decision surface stays simple; the evidence remains available underneath.

Classification accuracy80%View history →

Verified observations292See story →

Brier score0.152Performance →

Start here

New to weather prediction markets?

Learn how contracts, pricing, settlement, and probability work before reading today's signals.

Weather Markets Explained

Live signal monitoring Frozen forecasts Validated market prices only Market data cannot alter forecast

Top Opportunity80/100Denver · Edge +56 pp · Strong

Why this score?

Signal Watch4active city signals firing

Combined Accuracy80%233 correct · 292 resolved observations

Market Comparisons00 PIQ wins · 0 market wins · 0 pending

PRECIPIQ Morning Brief

What matters right now · generated from frozen + validated data

🔥

Top opportunity: Denver · Edge +56 pp · Strong · Score 80/100

⚡

Fastest mover: Miami, FL · Validated market edge is +20 pp.

🔥

Watch: Denver, CO · Surging +12 pp/6h

👀

Market catch-up: waiting for reliable intraday market history

⏱

Next check: 8:37 AM ET · first market catch-up observation

What Changed?

Material changes only · score ±10 · edge ±5 pp · state transitions

✓

New validated market pricing is available for 10 tracked cities.

PRECIPIQ Edge Signals

City-level frozen momentum · validated market edge when available

How to read this: YES = PRECIPIQ expects rain · NO = PRECIPIQ expects no rain · Edge = difference between PRECIPIQ and the market

🔥Market Edge Surging

Miami, FLRain ≥ 0.01" · KMIA

🌧️ Will it rain today?YES100% chance of rain

PRECIPIQYES

MARKET80% YES

EDGE20 pts toward YES

Validated market edge is +20 pp.

MARKET EDGE SURGING

🔥Market Edge Surging

New Orleans, LARain ≥ 0.01" · KMSY

🌧️ Will it rain today?YES100% chance of rain

PRECIPIQYES

MARKET24% YES

EDGE76 pts toward YES

Validated market edge is +76 pp.

MARKET EDGE SURGING

🔥Market Edge Surging

Denver, CORain ≥ 0.01" · KDEN

🌧️ Will it rain today?YES53% chance of rain

PRECIPIQYES

MARKET21% YES

EDGE56 pts toward YES

Validated market edge is +56 pp.

MARKET EDGE SURGING

❄Market Above PRECIPIQ

Los Angeles, CARain ≥ 0.01" · KLAX

☀️ Will it rain today?NO47% chance of rain

PRECIPIQNO

MARKET98% YES

EDGE35 pts toward NO

Validated market edge is -35 pp.

MARKET ABOVE PRECIPIQ

👀Watching

Austin, TXRain ≥ 0.01" · KAUS

7 AM vs 6 PM · latest highlighted

TARGET DATETuesday, September 8, 2026

CURRENT OUTLOOK7 AM · 7:08 AM ET

Use the highlighted LATEST percentage. 7 AM is preserved as the morning view; once the 6 PM freeze is issued, it becomes the current Tomorrow outlook.

CITY7 AM6 PMCHANGELATEST

New Orleans, LAKMSY · Low confidence

7 AM FREEZE97%7:08 AM ET

6 PM FREEZE—Pending tonight

CHANGE—

LATEST97%7 AM snapshot

Miami, FLKMIA · Medium confidence

7 AM FREEZE80%7:08 AM ET

6 PM FREEZE—Pending tonight

CHANGE—

LATEST80%7 AM snapshot

Denver, COKDEN · High confidence

7 AM FREEZE23%7:08 AM ET

6 PM FREEZE—Pending tonight

CHANGE—

LATEST23%7 AM snapshot

Chicago, ILKORD · Medium confidence

7 AM FREEZE23%7:08 AM ET

6 PM FREEZE—Pending tonight

CHANGE—

LATEST23%7 AM snapshot

Los Angeles, CAKLAX · High confidence

7 AM FREEZE17%7:08 AM ET

6 PM FREEZE—Pending tonight

CHANGE—

LATEST17%7 AM snapshot

7 AM snapshot: 7:08 AM ET6 PM snapshot: Pending

Forecast policyImmutable after issue

Market policyRead-only observational

Scoring policyResolved observations only

Pricing policyReliable prices only

Market Edge Board

Validated market prices only

City / Event	PRECIPIQ	Market	Edge	Momentum	Confidence	Liquidity	Score	Signal
☆Denver, CORain ≥ 0.01" · KDEN	53%	21%	+56 pp	↗ Surging +12 pp/6h	Low	Validated	—Pending	🔥
☆Los Angeles, CARain ≥ 0.01" · KLAX	47%	98%	-35 pp	→ Stable -1 pp/6h	Low	Validated	68Building	❄
☆Miami, FLRain ≥ 0.01" · KMIA	100%	80%	+20 pp	↗ Strengthening +5 pp/6h	Low	High	65Building	🔥
☆New Orleans, LARain ≥ 0.01" · KMSY	100%	24%	+76 pp	→ Stable -2 pp/6h		Validated	62Watch	🔥
☆Austin, TXRain ≥ 0.01" · KAUS	47%	—	—	→ Stable -1 pp/6h		Unverified	—Pending	👀

Market Catch-Up Timeline

Did the market move toward the frozen PRECIPIQ call?

→ Still diverging

Miami, FL market catch-up

Frozen PRECIPIQ100%

Awaiting later market observations

7 AM80%+20 pp

7 AM market: 80%Latest: 80%

→ Still diverging

New Orleans, LA market catch-up

Frozen PRECIPIQ100%

Awaiting later market observations

7 AM24%+76 pp

7 AM market: 24%Latest: 24%

→ Still diverging

Denver, CO market catch-up

Frozen PRECIPIQ77%

Awaiting later market observations

7 AM21%+56 pp

7 AM market: 21%Latest: 21%

→ Still diverging

Los Angeles, CA market catch-up

Frozen PRECIPIQ63%

Awaiting later market observations

7 AM98%-35 pp

7 AM market: 98%Latest: 98%

👀 Waiting for reliable market history

Austin, TX market catch-up

Frozen PRECIPIQ47%

Official NWS CLI-settled Verdict recommendations only

Resolved0CLI-settled recommendations

PRECIPIQ Wins0lower Brier

Market Wins0lower Brier

Ties0equal loss

BRIER SCORE · LOWER IS BETTER

PRECIPIQPending

MarketPending

Today's Rain Ranking

Top opportunities from the frozen morning forecast

Rank	City / Event	PRECIPIQ	Confidence	Agreement
1	Miami, FLKMIA · Rain ≥ 0.01"	100%	Low	Mixed
2	New Orleans, LAKMSY · Rain ≥ 0.01"	100%	Low	Mixed
3	Denver, COKDEN · Rain ≥ 0.01"	53%	Medium	Moderate
4	Los Angeles, CAKLAX · Rain ≥ 0.01"	47%	Medium	Moderate
5	Austin, TXKAUS · Rain ≥ 0.01"	47%	Low	Mixed

Forecast Record & Replay

Proof behind the signals

MethodPredict → Freeze → Verify → Score

Market disciplineSame-window comparisons only

Date	Correct	Brier	Highest-probability call	Day
2026-09-06	6/1060% classification	0.348	Miami100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-09-05	2/450% classification	0.280	Miami100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-09-04	11/1479% classification	0.158	New Orleans100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-09-02	13/1493% classification	0.062	Seattle100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-09-01	12/1392% classification	0.035	Boston100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-08-31	9/1275% classification	0.212	New Orleans100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-08-30	9/1369% classification	0.247	Chicago100% frozen probability	MIXED
2026-08-29	11/1385% classification	0.114	Seattle100% frozen probability	MIXED

Performance Intelligence

Historical baseline + live verified forecasts

Accuracy Over TimeCumulative hit rate

80%233 / 292 correctCombined verified record

Probability Skill (Brier Score)Lower is better

Lower is better · 292 resolved probability observations

What it tells us

Brier Score measures probability accuracy, not just yes/no hits. Confident forecasts are rewarded when correct and penalized more when wrong.

The score itself is the authoritative metric; the named skill band is a dashboard presentation aid.

Correct vs Wrong by CityCombined verified record

The record begins with the reconstructed historical baseline and continues with every matured TODAY and TOMORROW live-issued forecast.

Los Angeles17 resolved observations

17 ✓ · 0 ×

Phoenix16 resolved observations

16 ✓ · 0 ×

San Francisco16 resolved observations

16 ✓ · 0 ×

Boston23 resolved observations

22 ✓ · 1 ×

Las Vegas15 resolved observations

14 ✓ · 1 ×

Seattle18 resolved observations

16 ✓ · 2 ×

Washington DC13 resolved observations

11 ✓ · 2 ×

New Orleans27 resolved observations

20 ✓ · 7 ×

Atlanta25 resolved observations

18 ✓ · 7 ×

Philadelphia23 resolved observations

16 ✓ · 7 ×

Miami32 resolved observations

22 ✓ · 10 ×

Chicago19 resolved observations

13 ✓ · 6 ×

Denver25 resolved observations

17 ✓ · 8 ×

Austin23 resolved observations

15 ✓ · 8 ×

Experimental market-intelligence view · Market data never changes a frozen PRECIPIQ forecast · No trading actions are performed

ACCOUNTABILITY

Verified Prediction Receipts

Frozen before the event. Scored after the fact. Wins and losses both stay on the board.

View full history →

🔒

We don’t rewrite forecasts after the fact. Every receipt below pairs an immutable pre-event forecast with its later verified weather result.

Latest receipts6

Correct3

Wrong3

Recent hit rate50%

Philadelphia verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KPHL

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KPHL

❌ WRONG

Frozen PRECIPIQ call🌧️ RAIN — YES60.0% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result☀️ RAIN — NO0.00 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KPHL · NWS station observations · sum of complete IEM processed METAR hourly precipitation within the same local scoring window. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.

New Orleans verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KMSY

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KMSY

❌ WRONG

Frozen PRECIPIQ call🌧️ RAIN — YES96.7% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result☀️ RAIN — NO0.00 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KMSY · NWS station observations · sum of complete IEM processed METAR hourly precipitation within the same local scoring window. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.

Miami verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KMIA

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KMIA

✅ CORRECT

Frozen PRECIPIQ call🌧️ RAIN — YES100.0% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result🌧️ RAIN — YES0.02 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KMIA · NWS station observations · sum of maximum precipitationLastHour value per local clock hour. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.

Los Angeles verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KLAX

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KLAX

✅ CORRECT

Frozen PRECIPIQ call🌧️ RAIN — YES73.3% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result🌧️ RAIN — YES0.46 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KLAX · NWS station observations · sum of maximum precipitationLastHour value per local clock hour. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.

Las Vegas verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KLAS

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KLAS

❌ WRONG

Frozen PRECIPIQ call🌧️ RAIN — YES90.0% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result☀️ RAIN — NO0.00 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KLAS · NWS station observations · sum of maximum precipitationLastHour value per local clock hour. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.

Denver verified result TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KDEN

TODAY · 7 AM · Sep 6, 2026 · KDEN

✅ CORRECT

Frozen PRECIPIQ call☀️ RAIN — NO26.7% · frozen 7:07 AM ET

Verified result☀️ RAIN — NO0.00 in observed

Immutable forecast ✓Threshold ≥ 0.01 in08:00-20:00 local

How was this verified?

KDEN · NWS station observations · sum of complete IEM processed METAR hourly precipitation within the same local scoring window. The prediction artifact was issued at 7:07 AM ET before the scoring window and was not rewritten afterward.